presidential poll 結果共66筆

Explore the legacy of President Tsai Ing-wen as she prepares to leave office with approval ratings surpassing those of predecessors Chen Shui-pian and Ma Ying-chiu according to a TVBS poll. Japanese academic Yoshiyuki Ogasawara analyzes Tsai’s success and the Democratic Progressive Party’s historic third-term win, contrasting it with the fluctuating approval ratings of Ma and Chen. The future of Tsai’s successor, Lai Ching-te, remains a point of interest.

Taipei People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je has expressed his intention to establish an internal public opinion center in order to improve the accuracy of future polls. This decision follows the TPP’s defeat in the presidential election and the subsequent launch of a post-defeat review. Ko believes that implementing out-of-district voting is a key change that needs to be made. He also highlighted the need for voting methods to adapt to the changing times, which he sees as a contributing factor to the election loss. In the meantime, concerns have been raised about legislator-at-large-elect Huang Shan-shan’s alleged dual party membership. Huang has responded by threatening legal action against those spreading false information, as the TPP prepares to establish a legal department. Additionally, TPP Taipei party headquarters chairman Lin Kuo-cheng has offered to resign due to disappointing post-election results. The TPP has clarified that staff turnovers are a result of job positions and organizational adjustments, as current legislative workloads are burdensome. The party plans to release a defeat review report to identify the main causes of the election loss.

The Central Election Commission in Taiwan announces a comprehensive ban on publicizing, discussing, or referring to poll data in the lead-up to the General Election, aiming to ensure fairness and impartiality in the electoral process.

The United Daily News pre-closure poll shows that Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential and vice-presidential candidates, maintain a 5-percentage-point lead over their Kuomintang (KMT) rivals, Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong. The Lai-Hsiao ticket received 32% support, while the Hou-Jaw ticket received 27%, a decrease of four percentage points from previous polls. Ko Wen-je and Cynthia Wu, the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) presidential and vice-presidential candidates, trailed with 21% support. Among different age groups, the Ko-Wu ticket led among voters aged 20 to 39 with a 42% support rate. Among 40-59 year-olds, the Hou-Jaw ticket led by 1%, and among voters over 60, the Hou-Jaw ticket polled at 37%, while the Lai-Hsiao ticket polled at 35%. The survey was conducted from Dec. 26-30, 2023, with a sample size of 1,215 adults. The sampling error is within plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The survey used a dual telephone register for random sampling, including landline and mobile phones, with weighting by gender, age, and population structure. The funding for the survey came from United Daily News.

Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu accuses the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of smearing and attacking the presidential election through nationwide advertising campaigns. The KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih and vice-presidential candidate Jaw Shaw-kong are losing swing voters, according to a public opinion poll published by the United Daily News. Chu criticizes the DPP for targeting Hou by drawing attention to the dormitory at Taipei’s Chinese Culture University (CCU), owned by Hou’s wife. He warns that if such smear tactics go unchecked, Taiwan risks becoming a society dominated by smear campaigns. Internal party polls show that the KMT’s support rates are within the margin of error compared to the DPP’s, leading by one percentage point in landline-based surveys. Taiwan’s 2024 presidential and legislative elections are due to take place next Saturday, and Chu emphasizes that the KMT will work harder despite alleged underhanded tactics and continuous smearing efforts by the DPP.

According to a recent poll conducted by ETtoday, the ＂Lai-Hsiao＂ (Lai Ching-te, Hsiao Bi-khim) ticket of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading in Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024 with 38.1% of voter support. The ＂Hou-Jaw＂ (Hou Yu-ih) ticket of the Kuomintang (KMT) follows closely behind with 34.8%, while the ＂Ko-Wu＂ (Ko Wen-je, Cynthia Wu) ticket of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) stands at 19.2%. The approval rating for the Lai-Hsiao ticket has increased by 1.9 percentage points since the last poll, while the Hou-Jaw ticket has remained constant, and the Ko-Wu ticket has experienced a slight decrease of 1.5 points. As a result, the gap between Lai and Hou has grown from 1.4 to 3.3 points. In terms of demographics, Lai is leading in Taiwan’s southern regions and among people aged 40-49, with respective approval ratings of 49.7% and 38.1%. Hou, on the other hand, is leading in the north, outlying eastern islands, and among those aged 60 and older, with approval ratings at 38.6%, 42.5%, and 52.7%, respectively. Ko is leading among younger voters aged 20-39. Lai’s support has seen a significant increase of 15.9 points among voters aged 50-59, indicating improvement in a previously weaker demographic. However, Lai’s support has decreased by 20 points among DPP supporters. In contrast, Hou’s support has remained steady, and Ko’s approval has surged by 10.6 points among pan-DPP supporters. The poll was conducted on December 25-26, surveying Taiwanese aged 20 and older about the 2024 presidential elections. The sample size was 1,618, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.44% and a confidence level of 95%.

The latest poll from My-formosa.com shows that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te has a narrow lead over Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih in the 2024 presidential election. Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim received 37.5% support, while Hou and his running mate Jaw Shaw-kong received 32.6% support. Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) Ko Wen-je and his running mate Cynthia Wu received 16.3% support. The poll results indicate a 4.9 percentage point difference between Lai and Hou, and a 16.3 percentage point gap between Hou and Ko. Lai’s counterattack after the scandal involving his family’s property in Wanli may have contributed to the slight decrease in support for Hou and Ko. The poll was conducted through telephone interviews using the Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) method, covering all 22 municipalities in Taiwan. A total of 1,470 individuals aged over 20 were interviewed, with a maximum margin of error of ±2.6% at a 95% confidence level.

The latest survey results reveal a close presidential race in Taiwan, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim leading with 35.9 percent support, followed closely by the Kuomintang (KMT) ticket of Hou Yu-ih for president and Jaw Shaw-kong for vice president with 34.7 percent. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je and running mate Cynthia Wu are in third place with 19.6 percent support. Notably, the TPP’s Ko-Wu ticket has garnered 26.3 percent support from centrist voters, surpassing both the KMT and DPP. While 44.3 percent of respondents believe the DPP candidates are likely to win the 2024 Presidential and Vice Presidential elections, 30.1 percent support the KMT, and 13.8 percent favor the TPP candidates. However, the poll also highlights significant opposition, with 40.5 percent of respondents indicating they would not vote for the DPP ticket, followed by 27.3 percent against the KMT and 20.6 percent not favoring the TPP. The survey, sponsored by ETtoday, was conducted from December 18-19 and gathered a valid sample size of 1,224 Taiwanese adults over the age of 20 using mobile text notifications and closed internet questionnaires. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

A new poll by ETtoday reveals a tight race in the upcoming 2024 presidential election in Taiwan. The Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai-Hsiao ticket, consisting of Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, leads with 35.9% support, slightly ahead of the Kuomintang’s Hou-Jaw ticket, comprised of Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong, at 34.7%. The Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko-Wu ticket, featuring Ko Wen-je and Cynthia Wu, trails behind with 19.6% support. Despite the close percentages, 44.3% of the public expresses confidence in the Lai-Hsiao ticket’s ability to win, compared to 30.1% for Hou-Jaw and 13.8% for Ko-Wu. Conversely, 40.5% of voters are certain they will not vote for Lai-Hsiao, while 27.3% reject Hou-Jaw and 20.6% turn away from Ko-Wu. In terms of non-constituency legislators, the KMT leads with 35% support, followed by the DPP with 31.3% and the TPP at 14.5%. The poll highlights public concern over Taiwan’s economic ties with China, particularly due to recent trade restrictions viewed as trade barriers and the suspension of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) measures. Additionally, 47.1% of respondents worry that a Lai Ching-te presidency could worsen cross-strait economic and people-to-people exchanges, while 16.4% hold the same concern for Hou Yu-ih and 11.6% for Ko Wen-je. The poll, conducted from December 18 to 19, surveyed 1,224 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8%. Compared to the previous poll from December 14 to 15, support for the Lai-Hsiao ticket dropped by 2.6 percentage points, while the Hou-Jaw ticket saw a minor decline of 0.4 percentage points, and the Ko-Wu ticket remained unchanged. The number of undecided voters increased to 9.8%, indicating the undecided nature of the electorate ahead of the presidential vote.

A new poll reveals that 40.5% of Taiwanese would definitely not vote for the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai-Hsiao ticket (Lai Ching-te, Hsiao Bi-khim) in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The survey also shows that 47.1% believe cross-strait economic and people-to-people exchanges could worsen under Lai Ching-te’s leadership. Lai-Hsiao currently leads with 35.9% support, followed closely by the Kuomintang’s Hou-Jaw ticket (Hou Yu-ih, Jaw Shaw-kong) with 34.7%, and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko-Wu ticket (Ko Wen-je, Cynthia Wu) at 19.6%. A small percentage plan to abstain or render their ballots invalid, and a significant portion remains undecided. Optimism for Lai-Hsiao winning stands at 44.3%, while 27.3% completely rule out voting for Hou-Jaw and 20.6% against Ko-Wu. Hou Yu-ih is believed to have a 16.4% impact on cross-strait relations, while Ko Wen-je holds an 11.6% influence. The poll was conducted from December 18-19, surveying 1,224 individuals from Taiwan and the Fujian area. It was funded by ETtoday and has a sampling error of ±2.8% at a 95% confidence level.

The latest poll released by United Daily News shows a neck-and-neck race unfolding in Taiwan’s upcoming 2024 presidential election. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates, Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, known as ＂Lai-Hsiao,＂ have a support rate of 31%, matching the popularity of the Kuomintang (KMT) duo Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong, dubbed ＂Hou-Jaw,＂ who also have a 31% approval rating. Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je and his vice-presidential partner, Cynthia Wu, referred to as ＂Ko-Wu,＂ currently stand at 21% in the polls. In terms of in-party support, ＂Lai-Hsiao＂ leads with an 86% approval rate among DPP supporters, ＂Hou-Jaw＂ has an 83% approval from KMT adherents, and ＂Ko-Wu＂ secured an 85% backing from TPP followers. Among neutral voters, ＂Hou-Jaw＂ leads with 25%, followed by ＂Ko-Wu＂ at 23%, and ＂Lai-Hsiao＂ at 19%. However, 45% of all polled voters believe ＂Lai-Hsiao＂ are most likely to win the election, compared to 23% for ＂Hou-Jaw＂ and 13% for ＂Ko-Wu,＂ with 19% feeling the outcome is too close to call. The survey also indicates a collective yearning among 48% of respondents for political change, with 31% expressing a strong desire to see the DPP unseated. The poll, conducted from Dec. 13 to Dec. 17, involved 1,250 adult respondents with an additional 368 refusals. The methodology employed dual-frame sampling of both landline and mobile phones, accounting for mobile-only households, and the results were weighted according to age, gender, and population distribution across various municipalities for those aged over 20. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Former Minister of Health and Welfare and campaign manager for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei, Chen Shih-chung, has revealed that internal polling indicates fluctuations in voter sentiment during the tightly contested presidential race. Despite the challenging overall race in Taipei, DPP’s presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, maintains stable support across various demographic groups. The DPP has been conducting internal polls to assist in devising election strategies. Chen countered claims by Kuomintang’s (KMT) Taipei party branch director Huang Lu Ching-ju, stating that the DPP’s findings contradict the approval rating figures of KMT presidential candidates Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong. Chen noted that the KMT has higher support among older voters but struggles to appeal to the younger demographic. While acknowledging the volatility of party-led poll figures, Chen stated that campaign tactics would be adjusted based on these outcomes. DPP legislative candidate Wu Pei-yi remains optimistic about the election in Taipei, suggesting the possibility of a turn of events in both the presidential and legislative elections. The DPP continues to work tirelessly to improve its standing in the challenging district of Taipei.

According to a recent poll, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) ＂Lai-Hsiao ticket＂ has a support rate of 32.7%, placing them ahead in the presidential race. The Kuomintang’s (KMT) ＂Hou-Kong ticket＂ closely trails behind with 29% support. If strategic voting occurs, the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) ＂Ko-Ying ticket＂ could lose 7.3% of their current support, potentially resulting in a tie between Hou-Kong and Lai-Xiao at 32.7%. Compared to the previous poll in November, the Lai-Xiao ticket has gained 4.4% support, while the Hou-Kong duo has seen a modest increase of 0.8%. Conversely, support for the Ko-Ying pair has decreased by 4.6%. The survey, conducted through landline and mobile phone interviews on December 13 and 14, involved 1,088 Taiwanese citizens aged 20 and above.

Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) presidential candidate Ko Wen-je’s campaign director, Huang Shan-shan, released the party’s latest internal poll on Tuesday, December 12. The poll showed that Ko’s support has remained above 20% and expressed their determination to continue working hard. According to the poll, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates, Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, lead with a support rate of 34.3%. Ko Wen-je and his running mate, Cynthia Wu, have garnered 24.5% support, while the Kuomintang (KMT) candidates, Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong, are slightly behind with 22.9%. The poll also revealed that undecided voters and other candidates make up 18.3% of potential voter sentiment. Huang criticized some polls as tools of political manipulation and emphasized the authenticity of the TPP’s internal polling data. The survey, conducted on December 9 and 10, interviewed 1,217 respondents, with 857 respondents contacted via landlines and 360 respondents polled through mobile phones.

The latest public opinion poll in Taiwan shows a decline in support for all presidential hopeful pairings in the 2024 election. The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai-Hsiao ticket maintains a lead with 35.1% support, despite a drop of 2.7 percentage points. The Kuomintang’s (KMT) Hou-Jaw pairing saw a marginal decline to 32.5%, indicating a close race. The Taiwan People Party’s (TPP) Ko-Wu team also experienced a dip in support, sliding to an even 17%. In terms of party rotation, 32.2% of respondents believe it would be better for Taiwan’s development if the DPP continues to hold the presidency, while 29% prefer a KMT takeover and 15% support the TPP. The poll included 1,201 participants over the age of 20 and was conducted on December 7, 8, and 11.

The latest presidential poll reveals that the Ko-Ying ticket of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) is projected to secure between 2.535 million to 2.726 million votes. My Formosa Chairman Wu Tzu-chia described these numbers as ＂terrifying.＂ The Lai-Hsiao ticket of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is estimated to receive a vote share of 40.6 percent to 42.7 percent, translating to 5.534 million to 5.820 million votes. The Hou-Kang ticket of the Kuomintang (KMT) is expected to garner 38.6% to 39.6% of the vote, amounting to 5.261 million to 5.398 million votes. The Ko-Ying ticket is anticipated to achieve a vote percentage of 18.6% to 20.0%. Wu emphasized that TPP’s presidential candidate Ko Wen-je holds nearly 3 million votes, which could influence the election’s outcome. Ko’s popularity surged after launching the ’KP Show,’ causing DPP candidate Lai Ching-te’s polling numbers to decrease by nearly two percentage points from 40%. Wu acknowledged the remarkable shift of young voters aligning with Ko Wen-je instead of the KMT.

Taipei (TVBS News) — Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) campaign chief Vivian Huang suggests that TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je should ignore daily critiques from traditional media to improve his lagging poll numbers ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Ko’s support has significantly declined, and veteran media person Huang Wei-han advises him to stop blaming institutional effects, fake news, and media blackouts, and instead acknowledge the deficit in the race. Former legislator Shen Fu-hsiung predicts that Ko may receive as little as 12% of the vote and suggests that the TPP might secure only six seats in the Legislative Yuan. However, Vivian Huang counters the negativity by emphasizing that internal polling for the TPP shows their support at around 20%. She advises against focusing on negative press and poll results from traditional media platforms, advocating instead for a concentrated effort on promoting and implementing the party’s own policies.

The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) announced that its presidential candidate, Wen-je Ko, and running mate, Cynthia Wu, received 27.6% support in the latest party polls. The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim led the race with 29.9% backing, with 50.1% of respondents believing they would win the election. The Kuomintang (KMT) duo of Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong trailed behind with a 24.3% support rate, and 17.9% predicted their victory. In terms of party support, the KMT led with 26%, followed closely by the TPP at 25.7%, and the DPP lagging at 23.5%. The poll had a confidence level of 95.0% and a margin of error of approximately ±2.75%, based on a valid sample size of 1,216 people. The sampling method targeted adults over 20 across all 22 counties and cities, with landline samples sourced from Chunghwa Telecom’s directory and mobile numbers generated randomly.

The latest poll by My Formosa Online reveals a resurgence in support for the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai-Hsiao ticket, giving them a 38% lead over other contenders. The Koumintang’s (KMT) ＂Hou-Kang ticket＂ follows in second place with 31.7% support, while the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) ＂Ko-Ying ticket＂ has experienced a decline, capturing only 14.9%. Initially, the KMT and TPP saw an increase in their numbers, fueled by speculation of a potential joint ticket. However, as the possibility of an alliance fell through and vice-presidential candidates were announced, support for Lai Ching-te of the DPP began to stabilize. This shift highlights the dynamic political landscape in Taiwan as parties solidify their tickets and prepare for an intense election season. The upcoming months are expected to be particularly vibrant as parties strategize to gain ground in voter preferences and address perceived weaknesses.

KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih’s campaign office accuses TPP candidate Ko Wen-je of being inconsistent regarding the polling dispute during the attempted formation of a joint KMT-TPP ticket. Ko expressed dissatisfaction with the KMT’s internal politics and claimed that the majority of Taiwanese people desire a change in governance. Hou’s spokesperson refutes Ko’s narrative, stating that if polling numbers are within the margin of error, both candidates are considered equal. The spokesperson accuses Ko of refusing to accept scientific facts and remaining stuck in his contradictions.

The latest poll by Formosa Magazine reveals that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading the 2024 Taiwan presidential race, with the Kuomintang (KMT) trailing with approximately 30% support, and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) at the bottom. Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, the DPP presidential candidates, have an approval rating of 36.3%, while the KMT contenders, Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-Kong, hold a 31.0% approval rating. Ko Wen-je and Cynthia Wu of the TPP secured an 18% support rate. In terms of party support, 32.4% of respondents favored the DPP to continue governing, 28.9% supported the KMT taking the reins, and 14.8% backed the TPP to lead. When asked about an alternation of ruling parties, 37.8% favored voting for the opposition party with the highest polls, while 51.4% disagreed. The poll also examined negative sentiments towards the candidates, with 33.3% least wanting to see Lai Ching-te become president, followed by Ko Wen-je at 23.8% and Hou Yu-ih at 16.4%. Among committed supporters, 20.5% declared unwavering support for the Lai-Hsiao ticket, while Hou and Jaw received 20.0%, and Ko and Wu had 9.1%. However, 41.9% of voters did not pledge strong allegiance to any candidate. The poll, conducted from Nov. 24 to Nov. 28, 2023, used the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) method and successfully interviewed 1,476 people with a 95% confidence level.

The latest Gallup poll results reveal that in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) ＂Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim ticket＂ holds a narrow lead with 31.01% support. The Kuomintang (KMT) trails closely behind with its ＂Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong pair＂ at 30.94%. The Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) ＂Ko Wen-je and Wu Hsin-ying combo＂ garners 18.12% support. Additionally, 4.74% of voters plan to abstain from voting, 12.27% remain undecided, and 2.93% did not provide a response. Notably, 31.7% of respondents express a preference for candidates over party lines, indicating the presence of swing voters who could play a crucial role in the election. The poll surveyed 1,073 individuals aged 20 and above across all 22 municipalities of Taiwan from November 25 to November 27. The results were weighted by gender, age, and household registration location, with a sampling error of plus or minus 2.99% at a 95% confidence level.

Amid Taiwan’s heated political race, a new TVBS poll shows the DPP’s Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim leading, while the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-Kong gain ground. The TPP’s support declines, indicating a potential rift in the KMT-TPP coalition, as voter enthusiasm grows.

The latest survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) reveals that the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has become the largest party in Taiwan, with a support rate of 25.3%. This puts them slightly ahead of the Kuomintang (KMT) at 24.8% and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 24.5%. The TPP has experienced a significant increase in support, rising by 8.3% in the past month, while the DPP and KMT have seen declines of 2.6% and 1.7% respectively. TPOF chairman Michael You emphasized that this poll marks a historic first in Taiwan’s party politics, with less than one percentage point separating the three parties. This development signifies a remarkable evolution in the political landscape. The TPP has benefitted the most from the ＂Blue-White alliance,＂ which has been seeking a change in ruling parties. With the 2024 presidential election still over a month away, Taiwan’s party competition has entered an unprecedented phase where the three parties are on equal footing. Other political parties such as the New Power Party (NPP) and Taiwan Statebuilding Party (TSP) received 2.9% and 1% support respectively, with 1.8% for other minor parties. Approximately 19.1% of respondents did not express support for any party, while 0.7% were undecided or refused to answer. The survey, conducted from November 19-21, used a dual-frame random sampling method encompassing both landlines and mobile phones.

The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has made history in Taiwan’s presidential elections by positioning its campaign manager, Vivian Huang, as the top non-constituency legislator-at-large candidate. This unprecedented move has raised concerns about a potential conflict of interest, as Huang holds the power to nominate while also being involved in the election game. Legislator Chuang Jui-hsiung of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) highlighted Huang’s appointment as a reflection of her close rapport with TPP’s presidential candidate Ko Wen-je and her understanding of the Kuomintang’s (KMT) campaign strategies. Huang’s previous engagement with the KMT provides her with intimate knowledge of the opposition’s tactics, allowing her to preemptively contest any strategic moves. As the presidential candidacies were solidified, attention has turned to the election strategies of the major parties, with Huang’s multiple duties generating scrutiny. Her readiness to counteract tactics demonstrates the intensifying nature of Taiwan’s elections as parties prepare for a fierce battle, where alliances and poll maneuvers could have a significant impact.